3
 Recognition Rates

Main citizenships

Over the past three years, the recognition rate—which reflects the percentage of asylum applicants granted refugee status or subsidiary protection—has fluctuated around 40% at first instance, with refugee status usually being granted more frequently than subsidiary protection.

During the first half of 2025, the EU+ recognition rate fell to 25%, the lowest annual or semi-annual level on record. This decline was driven by a sharp drop in decisions issued to Syrian applicants, who in the past typically received a high number of positive outcomes. During the first half of 2025, most EU+ countries temporarily paused the processing of Syrian asylum claims, pending greater clarity on the security and political situation in Syria. As a result, the number of decisions issued to Syrians fell significantly—from nearly 85,000 in the first half of 2024, to just 13,000 in the first half of 2025. Of the decisions issued to Syrians between January and June 2025, only 17% were positive, in stark contrast to the usual recognition rate of 90% or higher for Syrian nationals.

Importantly, this shift does not reflect stricter qualification for granting international protection to Syrians. Instead, the lower recognition rate appears to be largely driven by procedural factors. For example, countries that partially suspended the processing of Syrian cases take decisions in specific circumstances, such as when an assessment of the situation in Syria is not needed, e.g. for Syrian applicants who have already been granted protection status by another EU Member State (e.g. Belgium, Germany). Furthermore, some Syrians have withdrawn their asylum applications, which is, in some EU+ countries, recorded statistically as a negative decision. This may reflect evolving intentions among Syrian applicants, with some possibly planning to return home given the recent political developments in Syria. Read the EUAA Syria Interim Country Guidance, which provides an analysis of the main risk profiles in Syria after the fall of Assad's regime and the EUAA Syria Country Focus report, which provides an updated analysis of the situation in Syria following the ousting of Bashar Al-Assad.

As the Syrian example illustrates, the EU+ recognition rate is a composite indicator shaped by diverse trends, including differences between citizenships and various other characteristics. Recognition rates for different nationalities can vary significantly. For example, Bangladeshi applicants have a recognition rate of around 4%, while nationals from Pakistan have rates around 10%. While many recognition rates remain fairly stable over time—such as those for Nigerians, who maintain a recognition rate of just over 10%—there are notable exceptions to this general pattern:

  • Turks: The recognition rate has been in steady decline from 54% in 2019, to just 12% during the first half of 2025.

  • Haiti: Over the last five years the recognition rate has steadily increased from 10% in 2020 to 86% during the first half of 2025.

  • Mali: The RR changed significantly since 2021 and after some fluctuations stood at 79% during the first half of 2025.

  • Ukraine: the RR spiked following the Russian invasion but decreased slightly in the last 18 months, to 73% during the first half of 2025.

Context

It should be noted that some applicants, especially those from Venezuela and to a lesser extent from Somalia, Afghanistan and Pakistan are often granted national (rather than international) forms of protection which are unregulated at the EU level and are therefore considered as negative asylum decisions in these statistics. Also, the recognition rates presented here are based on first instance decisions issued by asylum authorities and thus do not account for cases decided by the judiciary and other authorities at second or higher instance i.e. in appeal and review.

Across the EU+

The aim of EUAA’s work is to foster a harmonised implementation of the Common European Asylum System across the EU so as to reach a situation where an application for international protection would receive the same decision, no matter where it was lodged. Recognition rates, the percentage of asylum applications that receive decisions granting refugee status or subsidiary protection, are sometimes cited as an indicator of the level of such harmonisation between EU+ countries. For more information, read the EUAA Pilot Convergence Analysis which focuses on the main factors leading to variations in recognition rates as well as on measures to achieve greater convergence.

Irrespective of underlying causes, Figure 7 illustrates recognition rates across the EU+ for various citizenships. In each column, individual circles of the same colour represent different issuing countries, with the size of each circle reflecting the number of decisions issued, and their placement on the vertical axis indicating the corresponding recognition rate—namely, the percentage of decisions that granted refugee status or subsidiary protection.

During the first half of 2025, the EU+ recognition rate for Afghans stood at 56%, although as illustrated in Figure 7, recognition rates varied significantly across receiving countries (leftmost column of black circles). Germany, which processed the largest number of Afghan asylum applications (represented by the largest circle, labelled in Figure 7), had a recognition rate of 33%. However, it is important to note that Germany also granted a national form of protection to 19% of Afghans who were issued decisions, which is classified here as a negative decision for international protection. When including these national protection grants, the adjusted (‘inclusive’) recognition rate for Afghans in Germany rises to 52%, and the inclusive EU+ recognition rate reaches 66%. Recognition rates also varied significantly across other key receiving countries. During the first half of 2025, France granted protection to 67% of Afghan cases, compared to 99% in Greece. To visualise some of the discussed decision-making practices, click here for an interactive chart, and to learn more read EUAA Country Guidance on Afghanistan and EUAA Country Focus on Afghanistan.

≤20% Recognition rates

A new feature of the EU Asylum and Migration Pact is the mandatory border procedure, which as of June 2026 will apply to certain categories of asylum seekers including those coming from countries with low recognition rates for international protection. The aim of the border procedure is to make a quick assessment at the EU's external borders of whether applications are unfounded or inadmissible. People in the asylum border procedure would not be authorised to enter the territory of the EU. For more details read the Asylum Procedures Regulation Art 42(j) 2024/1348.

During the first half of 2025, some 51% of applications were lodged by citizenships who had recognition rates of 20% or less in 2024. This estimation was calculated using EUAA data, plus to ensure statistical reliability, our calculations excluded citizenships that received fewer than 1,000 decisions in 2024. This exclusion is necessary because, when the sample size is small, a few additional positive or negative decisions can dramatically alter the calculated recognition rate, potentially leading to unstable or misleading estimates.

The chart above shows the main citizenships that applied for asylum during the first half of 2025, separated into whether or not they fall into the category of having a recognition rate of 20% or less in 2024. Applications visualised in the chart capture three quarters (72%) of all applications lodged during the first half of 2025.

In the context of asylum, the term 'safe country' refers to countries which generally do not generate protection needs for their people. In April 2025, the European Commission published a proposal of seven countries of origin considered safe at the Union level, which will apply to all EU Member States if approved by the European Parliament and the Council. In practice, the application of this list means Member States will use an accelerated procedure to individually assess asylum applications from nationals of these countries. The proposed list of safe countries of origin includes Bangladesh, Colombia, Egypt, India, Kosovo, Morocco and Tunisia which together accounted for 16% of all applications lodged during the first half of 2025. Read the EUAA Situational Update No 22, Overview of the Implementation of Safe Country Concepts for the state of play of EU+ countries implementing safe country concepts in the processing of asylum applications.